Climate and Migration in East and the Horn of Africa: Spatial Analysis of Migrants’ Flows Data

Abstract:

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) Regional Data Hub (RDH) for the East and Horn of Africa partnered with the Humanitarian Geoanalytics Program (HumGeo) at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) to analyze the complexities of and interactions between migration, conflict, environmental changes, and climate-related events in Yemen, and the East and Horn of Africa between 2018 and 2020.

This research aims to answer the following questions through a variety of geospatial analyses:

1) How did out-migration rates in any given administrative region change over time and, was it statistically significant compared to administrative regions around it?

2) How do the numbers of migrants and the overall migration trends vary across space and time, for each cited reason for migration (aka ‘driver of migration’)?

3) How do environmental variables, e.g. temperature and precipitation, correlate with outmigration in in the East and Horn of Africa?

This study provides new insights into out-migration patterns in the region, demonstrates a novel way to investigate changing reasons for out-migration using a variety of spatial analysis methods, and establishes a foundation for future studies to analyze the complex and evolving relationship between migration and climate change that will continue to intensify in the years to come.